Cascadia Exercise Resources

The Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Exercise is a scenario based on a major earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone and will serve as California's State Level Exercise for the Golden Guardian.  The state's functional exercise will span 3 days, from May 12-14, 2013.  E-DECIDER will participate in the California Earthquake Clearinghouse Exercise on May 14, 2013.  This response exercise will allow the state and FEMA to evaluate their concept of operations for disaster readiness for the state and the northern California counties most affected by the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

The Golden Guardian was first implemented in 2004 by former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and is an annual series to "exercise and assess emergency operations plans, policies, and procedures for all-hazards/catastrophic incidents at the local, regional, and state levels."

Main Shock Products

Cascadia Subduction Zone

  • Time: 
  • Location: N 45.73, W 125.12
  • Depth: 2.0 km
  • Prelim Magnitude: M 9.0
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Tilt Map

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Mainshock Slope Change
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Strain Magnitude Map

Highlights where greatest deformation (motion) has occurred.

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Mainshock Strain Magnitude
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Aftershock Products

Little Salmon fault

  • Time: 11:15 AM PDT
  • Location: N 40.80, W 124.16
  • Depth: 5.0 km
  • Prelim Magnitude: M 7.2
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Tilt Map

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Aftershock Slope Change
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Strain Magnitude Map

 

Highlights where greatest deformation (motion) has occurred.

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Aftershock Strain Magnitude
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Forecast Products

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Aftershock forecast for Mainshock

ETAS based forecast for which the spatial and temporal scaling parameters are estimated from earthquake spatial extents and scaling behaviors.

Read more here.

Download a Python script to read the shape files here.

Date Time UTC offset KMZ PNG Shape
2014-05-11 21:41 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-12 9:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-12 10:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-12 11:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-12 17:56 -08:00 Download   Download
2014-05-12 19:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-12 23:56 -08:00 Download   Download
2014-05-13 3:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-13 5:55 -08:00 Download   Download
2014-05-13 5:56 -08:00 Download   Download
2014-05-13 11:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-13 19:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-14 3:56 -08:00 Download Download Download

 

(2014-05-12 9:56 -08:00 UTC)

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Aftershock forecast for scenario aftershock

ETAS based forecast for which the spatial and temporal scaling parameters are estimated from earthquake spatial extents and scaling behaviors.

Read more here.

Date Time UTC offset KMZ PNG Shape
2014-05-14 18:14 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-14 11:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-14 19:56 -08:00 Download Download Download
2014-05-15 3:56 -08:00   Download  
2014-05-15 11:56 -08:00   Download  
2014-05-15 19:56 -08:00   Download  

 

(2014-05-14 18:14 -08:00 UTC)

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HSIP Critical Infrastructure Information

Please contact Maggi Glasscoe for information on how to obtain these products.

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Mainshock (epicenter)
Mainshock (fault rupture)
Mainshock (key cities)
Aftershock (epicenter)
Aftershock (fault rupture)
Aftershock (key cities)

Example Data Availability Timeline

Earthquake +0-1 hours

Modeled results based on location, magnitude, and likely faults

  • Modeled deformation maps (tilt maps, displacement maps, synthetic interferograms)
  • Critical infrastructure located near epicenter through KML on demand generator
  • PESH inputs for HAZUS-MH model (HAZUS gadget)
  • HAZUS total loss maps (user generated HAZUS models)
  • Aftershock forecasts

 

Earthquake +3 hours - 1 day

Optical data, more accurate GPS data and better estimates of fault rupture become available

  • Surface displacement maps with slope change based on improved models from data
  • Improved PESH inputs using new fault rupture estimates
  • Iterative forecast models based on aftershock occurrence

 

Earthquake +1 - 7 days

InSAR and additional remote sensing data become available to compute further improved fault models and surface displacement, as well as change detection

  • InSAR based damage assessment
  • Remote sensing based change detection

 

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