E-DECIDER Golden Guardian & ShakeOut 2013 Resources

The Golden Guardian 2013 Exercise is a scenario based on a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area.  The state's functional exercise will span 3 days, from May 13-15, 2013.  E-DECIDER will participate in the California Earthquake Clearinghouse Exercise on May 15, 2013.  This response exercise will allow the state and FEMA to evaluate their concept of operations for disaster readiness for the state and the Bay Area.

The Golden Guardian was first implemented in 2004 by former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and is an annual series to "exercise and assess emergency operations plans, policies, and procedures for all-hazards/catastrophic incidents at the local, regional, and state levels."

ShakeOut Logo The Great California ShakeOut is an annual earthquake response drill organized by the Southern California Earthquake Center, the US Geological Survey, the National Science Foundation, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the California Office of Emergency Services, and the California Earthquake Authority designed to raise general public awareness of our ever-present earthquake hazard and allow emergency responders the opportunity to review and test their response plans.

On October 17, 2013 at 10:17 am, over 9.4 million registrants will participate in the ShakeOut.  On the day before, E-DECIDER, in partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse, will participate in a tabletop response exercise based on a scenario event in the Bay Area, similar to the Golden Guardian Exercise of May of this year.

Main Shock Products

  • Time: 
  • Location: N37.70, W122.50
  • Depth: 
  • Prelim Magnitude: M 7.9
Product (v1) Preview

Tilt Map

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Mainshock Slope Change
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Strain Magnitude Map

Highlights where greatest deformation (motion) has occurred.

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Mainshock Strain Magnitude
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Disloc Displacement Output

Displacement vectors generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Disloc Synthetic InSAR

Synthetic InSAR interferograms generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Product (v2) Preview
Version 2 products based on modeled GPS displacement results provided by the ARIA (Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis) Team at JPL/Caltech

Tilt Map

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Mainshock Slope Change v.2
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Strain Magnitude Map

Highlights where greatest deformation (motion) has occurred.

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Mainshock Strain Magnitude v.2
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Disloc Displacement Output

Displacement vectors generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Disloc Synthetic InSAR

Synthetic InSAR interferograms generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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HAZUS InLET Results Preview
HAZUS hazard and loss estimation results provided by ImageCat. Download Link for GIS files.

Mainshock Estimation of MMI

 

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Mainshock Estimation of MMI

Mainshock Estimation of PGA

 

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Mainshock Estimation of PGA

Mainshock Estimation of Mortally Injured by Census Tract

 

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Mainshock Estimation of Mortally Injured by Census Tract

Mainshock Estimation of Life Threatening Injuries by Census Tract

 

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Mainshock Estimation of Life Threatening Injuries by Census Tract

Aftershock Products

San Andreas fault

  • Time: 11:13 AM PDT
  • Location: N37.99, W122.59
  • Depth: 10.0 km
  • Prelim Magnitude: M 6.5
Product (v1) Preview

Tilt Map

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Aftershock Slope Change
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Strain Magnitude Map

 

Highlights where greatest deformation (motion) has occurred.

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Aftershock Strain Magnitude
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Disloc Displacement Output

Displacement vectors generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Download Link

View Larger Map

Disloc Synthetic InSAR

Synthetic InSAR interferograms generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Download Link

View Larger Map

 

Product (v2) Preview
Version 2 products based on modeled GPS displacement results provided by the ARIA (Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis) Team at JPL/Caltech

Tilt Map

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Aftershock Slope Change v.2
View Larger Map

Strain Magnitude Map

 

Highlights where greatest deformation (motion) has occurred.

Download Link

Aftershock Strain Magnitude v.2
View Larger Map

Disloc Displacement Output

Displacement vectors generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Download Link

View Larger Map

Disloc Synthetic InSAR

Synthetic InSAR interferograms generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Download Link

View Larger Map

HAZUS InLET Results Preview
HAZUS hazard and loss estimation results provided by ImageCat. Download Link for GIS files.

Aftershock Estimation of MMI

 

Download Link

Aftershock Estimation of MMI

Aftershock Estimation of PGA

 

Download Link

Aftershock Estimation of PGA

Green Valley fault (DWR scenario)

  • Time: 11:20 AM PDT
  • Location: N38.04, W122.08
  • Depth: 14.0 km
  • Prelim Magnitude: M 6.8
Product Preview

Tilt Map

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

DWR Aftershock Slope Change
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Strain Magnitude Map

 

Highlights where greatest deformation (motion) has occurred.

Download Link

DWR Aftershock Strain Magnitude
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Disloc Displacement Output

Displacement vectors generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Download Link

View Larger Map

Disloc Synthetic InSAR

Synthetic InSAR interferograms generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Download Link

View Larger Map

 

Forecast Products

Product Preview

Aftershock forecast for Mainshock

ETAS based forecast for which the spatial and temporal scaling parameters are estimated from earthquake spatial extents and scaling behaviors.

For the purpose of this exercise, there are a series of forecasts, with one triggered at the event, then soon thereafter and then every 12 hours following.

Read more here.

Date Time UTC offset KMZ PNG
2013-05-13 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-13 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-13 13:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-14 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-14 12:00 -08:00 Download Download

 

(2013-05-13 13:00:00 -08:00 UTC)

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Aftershock forecast for scenario aftershock

ETAS based forecast for which the spatial and temporal scaling parameters are estimated from earthquake spatial extents and scaling behaviors.

For the purpose of this exercise, there are a series of forecasts, with one triggered at the event, then soon thereafter and then every 12 hours following.

Read more here.

Date Time UTC Offset KMZ PNG
2013-05-15 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-15 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-15 13:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-16 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-16 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-17 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-17 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-18 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-18 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-19 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-19 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-20 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-20 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-21 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-21 12:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-22 00:00 -08:00 Download Download
2013-05-22 12:00 -08:00 Download Download

 

(2013-05-15 13:00:00 -08:00 UTC)

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Example Data Availability Timeline

Earthquake +0-1 hours

Modeled results based on location, magnitude, and likely faults

  • Modeled deformation maps (tilt maps, displacement maps, synthetic interferograms)
  • Critical infrastructure located near epicenter through KML on demand generator
  • PESH inputs for HAZUS-MH model (HAZUS gadget)
  • HAZUS total loss maps (user generated HAZUS models)
  • Aftershock forecasts

 

Earthquake +3 hours - 1 day

Optical data, more accurate GPS data and better estimates of fault rupture become available

  • Surface displacement maps with slope change based on improved models from data
  • Improved PESH inputs using new fault rupture estimates
  • Iterative forecast models based on aftershock occurrence

 

Earthquake +1 - 7 days

InSAR and additional remote sensing data become available to compute further improved fault models and surface displacement, as well as change detection

  • InSAR based damage assessment
  • Remote sensing based change detection

 

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