E-DECIDER ShakeOut Resources

The Great California ShakeOut is an annual earthquake response drill organized by the Southern California Earthquake Center, the US Geological Survey, the National Science Foundation, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the California Emergency Management Agency, and the California Earthquake Authority designed to raise general public awareness of our ever-present earthquake hazard and allow emergency responders the opportunity to review and test their response plans.

On October 18, 2012 at 10:18 am, over 12 million registrants will participate in the ShakeOut, which is based on a scenario M 7.6 event on the southern San Andreas fault. On the day before, E-DECIDER, in partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse, will participate in a tabletop response exercise based on this scenario event. The following tools and products will be available for the Clearinghouse exercise on October 17.

Main Shock Products

  • Time: PDST 11:00
  • Location: N33.35, W115.71
  • Depth: 7.6 km
  • Prelim Magnitude: ML 7.8
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Tiltmap

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Disloc Displacement Output

Displacement vectors generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Disloc Synthetic InSAR

Synthetic InSAR interferograms generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Aftershock Products

  • Time: 12:00:33
  • Location: N33.55, W115.89
  • Depth: 6.2 km
  • Prelim Magnitude: ML 7.0
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Tiltmap

Change of slope that can affect water distribution, drainage, and sewage services generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

Disloc Displacement Output

Displacement vectors generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Disloc Synthetic InSAR

Synthetic InSAR interferograms generated from Disloc surface deformation modeling code.

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Forecast Products

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Record breaking stress map for southern California

"Stress map" of southern California region; warm colors indicate elevated stress or damage accumulation (proxied by local seismic acceleration), cool colors indicate relaxation (proxied by seismic deceleration, or aftershocks). Records indicate that earthquakes tend to occur in "warm" areas, not in cool areas, though as indicated, the problem remains time to failure.

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Aftershock forecast for ShakeOut scenario

ETAS based forecast for which the spatial and temporal scaling parameters are estimated from earthquake spatial extents and scaling behaviors.

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Example Data Availability Timeline

Earthquake +0-1 hours

Modeled results based on location, magnitude, and likely faults

  • Modeled deformation maps (tilt maps, displacement maps, synthetic interferograms)
  • Critical infrastructure located near epicenter through KML on demand generator
  • PESH inputs for HAZUS-MH model (HAZUS gadget)
  • HAZUS total loss maps (user generated HAZUS models)
  • Aftershock forecasts

 

Earthquake +3 hours - 1 day

Optical data, more accurate GPS data and better estimates of fault rupture become available

  • Surface displacement maps with slope change based on improved models from data
  • Improved PESH inputs using new fault rupture estimates
  • Iterative forecast models based on aftershock occurrence

 

Earthquake +1 - 7 days

InSAR and additional remote sensing data become available to compute further improved fault models and surface displacement, as well as change detection

  • InSAR based damage assessment
  • Remote sensing based change detection

 

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